View into the future (BLIZ): Interactions between society, land use, ecosystem services and biodiversity in Bavaria until 2100

How will ecosystem services and biodiversity develop in Bavaria? The interdisciplinary collaborative project BLIZ takes a glance into the future and develops new scenarios for a sustainable management of ecosystems in Bavaria. The aim of the collaborative project is to develop concrete instructions for sustainable management and to assess possible uncertainties. This raises the following research questions:

  • Which impacts do climate and land use change have on Bavarian ecosystems?
  • What are sustainable social and economic (land use) strategies for Bavaria that could counteract the loss of ecosystem services and biodiversity?
  • How can ecological and socio-economic tipping points be avoided?

Subproject 1: Impacts of land use and climate change on terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity

Subproject 1 examines how far climate and land use changes affect ecosystem functions, ecosystem services and biodiversity in order to adapt management strategies.

Applying the ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS, land use options for various climate scenarios are calculated. Biodiversity indicators will be derived from the impact of climate change on the mapped biotopes. Production funtions, which predict ecosystem services of a particular area, will be generated. Subproject 4 will model changes in land use by these results. This in turn will serve subproject 1 to develop adapted scenarios.


  • Bavarian State Ministry of Science and the Arts
  • Technical University of Munich
  • Julius-Maximilians-Universität Würzburg
  • Universität Regensburg
  • Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg

Project management: A. Rammig

Person in charge: A. Rammig, A. Krause, M. Reiss

Financing: bayklif